JBS Vol 23. Num 1. 2021. Article 2 - COVID-19 Pandemic Situations and Predictions in Bangladesh

Md Hasinur Rahaman Khan
Abstract

It is evident that the COVID-19 pandemic has affected everyone regardless of race, nationality, and economic status. This paper aims at analyzing the current situation of Bangladesh and predicting infections and deaths for short, moderate, and longer periods of time using Trajectory-Pathway Strategy (ITPS), polynomial regression and Susceptible-Infectious-Removed (SIR) methods and the COVID-19 data extracted from different sources as of April 22, 2021. The case positivity rate increased to 23.6 per cent on April 9 from its lowest 2.3 per cent on February 9, 2021. The tests per head remain low when compared to other south Asian countries. We found that the potential pathway of infections for Bangladesh currently matches the actual infection pathways for Sweden and Pakistan. The ITPS suggests that by May 21, 2021, Bangladesh will cross 916,830 cases and 13,386 deaths, similar to Sweden’s pathway, while by May 22, 2021, these figures will be 772,381 and 11,277 respectively if Bangladesh follows Pakistan’s pathway. The polynomial regression predicts that by the end of April 2021, total number of infections and deaths will be 851,986 and 11,669, respectively and the required hospital beds and ICU beds will be 20,053 and 4,011, respectively. 

Keywords
Bangladesh
COVID-19 Deaths
Infections
Prediction
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